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A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a sign or a cause for Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the victories have accumulated.

According to the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.