A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
